BLOGS

U.S. Launches AD/CVD Investigation into Solar Cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos

1. Introduction

On August 7, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce officially launched parallel antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells, whether assembled into modules or not, from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The investigation responds to concerns that these imports are sold below fair value or benefit from unlawful subsidies, harming U.S. solar manufacturers. Source pv magazine InternationalPV TechWikipedia

This development arrives amid a rapidly evolving U.S. solar market and marks a critical moment in trade, energy policy, and industrial strategy.

2. Petition Background & Driving Forces

The investigations were triggered by a petition filed on July 17, 2025 by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (AASMT)—a coalition that includes First Solar, Mission Solar Energy, Qcells, and Talon PV Solar Solutions. The petition alleges that imports are:

• Dumped—sold in the U.S. below fair market value.
• Subsidized—receiving government support over permissible thresholds.
• Causing material injury to domestic manufacturers. Source pv magazine InternationalPV TechWikipedia

The U.S. has previously addressed similar concerns via AD/CVD actions against solar products from China and Southeast Asia.

3. Alleged Dumping Margins & Subsidization Claims

Commerce's notice lists the following alleged dumping margins:

• India: 123.04%
• Indonesia: 94.36%
• Laos: 123.12% to 190.12%

It also indicates suspected subsidy rates exceeding de minimis thresholds (below 1% for developed countries, 2% for developing countries).Source  Wikipediapv magazine International

Petitioners themselves estimated even higher figures:

• India: 213.96%
• Indonesia: 89.65%
• Laos: 245.79% to 249.09% Source PV TechSolarQuarter

These wide margins suggest aggressive pricing tactics in response to tariffs on Southeast Asian solar exports.

4. Import Surge: A Growing Tide

Data from Commerce underscores the surge in solar cell imports:

These imports reflect significant shifts in supply chains, with India, especially, emerging as a major exporter to the U.S. during this period.Source pv magazine International+1PV TechJMK Research & AnalyticsSolar&StorageXtra - Light readingMercomindia.com

Specifically, Indian solar module exports soared 23-fold between FY2022 and FY2024, reaching approximately $2 billion, with 97–99% destined for the U.S. market. Source JMK Research & AnalyticsIEEFASolar Now Alternately, Mercom India reports a 16% YoY decline in exports to $1.5B in 2024, but still with the U.S. accounting for 97.5% of trade. Source Mercomindia.com

5. AD/CVD Investigation Process Explained

Here’s how the U.S. AD/CVD system functions:

1. Commerce Department begins investigations post-petition.
2. International Trade Commission (ITC) assesses whether domestic producers face injury.
3. If ITC preliminary determination is affirmative, Commerce continues with preliminary findings.
4. Temporary cash deposit duties may begin based on preliminary rates.
5. Final determinations trigger formal AD/CVD duties, often lasting five years. Source WikipediaCowles Foundation

The timeline:

• Sept 2, 2025: ITC preliminary injury determination due.
• Oct 13, 2025: Commerce’s preliminary CVD decision expected.
• Dec 26, 2025: Commerce’s preliminary AD decision expected.
• Early 2026: Final determinations and potential issuance of duties. Source pv magazine InternationalWikipediaCowles Foundation

6. Historical Context: Previous Solar Trade Measures

U.S. involvement in solar trade measures has evolved:

• 2012 (Solar I): Imposed AD/CVD tariffs (31–250%) on Chinese solar imports. Source Wikipedia+1
• 2015 (Solar II): Extended scope to include certain assembly regions.
• 2024–25 (Solar III): AD/CVD actions against Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some tariffs went as high as 3,400%, triggering production shifts to countries like India and Laos. Source pv magazine InternationalReutersThe GuardianE&E News by POLITICOusasolarcell.com

7. Country-Specific Profiles

India

• Surged from a net importer to a leading exporter of solar modules.
• Module exports climbed from ~$83M (FY22) → ~$1.97B (FY24), with $782M exported in Apr–Nov 2024. Source Saur Energypv magazine InternationalJMK Research & Analytics
• However, domestic cell manufacturing lags, and many manufacturers now push exports under “China-plus-one” strategies. Source SolarQuarterJMK Research & Analytics

Indonesia

• Import volumes grew sharply, but detailed public data remain limited. The rapid increase suggests new investments in Indonesian PV manufacturing.

Laos

• Saw virtually zero exports until 2023—then surged to nearly 2 GW in 2024 with significant dollar value. Source pv magazine InternationalSolar&StorageXtra - Light reading

8. US Policy & Market Context

In 2018, Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imported solar cells, later scaled down to 15%—aimed at bolstering U.S. production but disrupting solar deployment. Source Wikipedia+1

While manufacturing capacity surged (e.g., 190% module capacity growth in 2024), installations declined in 2024 due to high costs and logistical bottlenecks: residential down 19%, utility-scale down 2%. Source The Verge

McKinsey estimates that "high tariff" scenarios could cut U.S. solar deployment by 9% by 2035. Source pv magazine International

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has, however, incentivized domestic production with tax credits and grants. Source Financial Times

9. Economic & Environmental Impacts of Tariffs

Historical data from SEIA indicates that tariffs led to a loss of over 62,000 U.S. jobs, $19 billion in investment, and about 10.5 GW of foregone solar deployment. Source Solar Energy Industries Association

Academic modeling (Cowles/Yale) confirms significant negative welfare and deployment impacts from solar tariffs. Source Cowles Foundation

MOST Policy Initiative adds: a $1 tariff leads to a $1.35 increase in end prices—hurting consumers and installers. Source mostpolicyinitiative.org

FTI Consulting shows new tariffs could raise utility-scale project costs by ~30%, potentially reducing 2025 U.S. installations from expected 35–40 GW to 20–25 GW. Source Reuters

10. Future Outlook & Scenarios

1. High-Tariff Scenario
• Deployment drops by ~9% by 2035 (McKinsey).
• Accelerated domestic manufacturing via IRA incentives. Source pv magazine InternationalFinancial Times
2. Moderate Response Scenario
• Exporters diversify into other markets.
• U.S. installs rely more on domestic modules/cells (expected rise in cell capacity).
3. Legal & Diplomatic Counters
• India and others may file WTO or sectoral challenges.
• Bilateral negotiations or supply chain safeguards may emerge.

11. Conclusion: What to Watch Next

This AD/CVD investigation is a watershed in U.S. solar trade strategy:

• If affirmative outcomes lead to duties, trade flows will shift once again.
• India’s export boom may face abrupt recalibration—with economic ramifications.
• The broader U.S. solar industry's path depends on ITC’s preliminary decision (due Sept 2), followed by Commerce’s AD/CVD findings in October–December 2025.

U.S. Launches AD/CVD Investigation into Solar Cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos

1. Introduction

On August 7, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce officially launched parallel antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells, whether assembled into modules or not, from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The investigation responds to concerns that these imports are sold below fair value or benefit from unlawful subsidies, harming U.S. solar manufacturers. Source pv magazine InternationalPV TechWikipedia

This development arrives amid a rapidly evolving U.S. solar market and marks a critical moment in trade, energy policy, and industrial strategy.

2. Petition Background & Driving Forces

The investigations were triggered by a petition filed on July 17, 2025 by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (AASMT)—a coalition that includes First Solar, Mission Solar Energy, Qcells, and Talon PV Solar Solutions. The petition alleges that imports are:

• Dumped—sold in the U.S. below fair market value.
• Subsidized—receiving government support over permissible thresholds.
• Causing material injury to domestic manufacturers. Source pv magazine InternationalPV TechWikipedia

The U.S. has previously addressed similar concerns via AD/CVD actions against solar products from China and Southeast Asia.

3. Alleged Dumping Margins & Subsidization Claims

Commerce's notice lists the following alleged dumping margins:

• India: 123.04%
• Indonesia: 94.36%
• Laos: 123.12% to 190.12%

It also indicates suspected subsidy rates exceeding de minimis thresholds (below 1% for developed countries, 2% for developing countries).Source  Wikipediapv magazine International

Petitioners themselves estimated even higher figures:

• India: 213.96%
• Indonesia: 89.65%
• Laos: 245.79% to 249.09% Source PV TechSolarQuarter

These wide margins suggest aggressive pricing tactics in response to tariffs on Southeast Asian solar exports.

4. Import Surge: A Growing Tide

Data from Commerce underscores the surge in solar cell imports:

These imports reflect significant shifts in supply chains, with India, especially, emerging as a major exporter to the U.S. during this period.Source pv magazine International+1PV TechJMK Research & AnalyticsSolar&StorageXtra - Light readingMercomindia.com

Specifically, Indian solar module exports soared 23-fold between FY2022 and FY2024, reaching approximately $2 billion, with 97–99% destined for the U.S. market. Source JMK Research & AnalyticsIEEFASolar Now Alternately, Mercom India reports a 16% YoY decline in exports to $1.5B in 2024, but still with the U.S. accounting for 97.5% of trade. Source Mercomindia.com

5. AD/CVD Investigation Process Explained

Here’s how the U.S. AD/CVD system functions:

1. Commerce Department begins investigations post-petition.
2. International Trade Commission (ITC) assesses whether domestic producers face injury.
3. If ITC preliminary determination is affirmative, Commerce continues with preliminary findings.
4. Temporary cash deposit duties may begin based on preliminary rates.
5. Final determinations trigger formal AD/CVD duties, often lasting five years. Source WikipediaCowles Foundation

The timeline:

• Sept 2, 2025: ITC preliminary injury determination due.
• Oct 13, 2025: Commerce’s preliminary CVD decision expected.
• Dec 26, 2025: Commerce’s preliminary AD decision expected.
• Early 2026: Final determinations and potential issuance of duties. Source pv magazine InternationalWikipediaCowles Foundation

6. Historical Context: Previous Solar Trade Measures

U.S. involvement in solar trade measures has evolved:

• 2012 (Solar I): Imposed AD/CVD tariffs (31–250%) on Chinese solar imports. Source Wikipedia+1
• 2015 (Solar II): Extended scope to include certain assembly regions.
• 2024–25 (Solar III): AD/CVD actions against Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some tariffs went as high as 3,400%, triggering production shifts to countries like India and Laos. Source pv magazine InternationalReutersThe GuardianE&E News by POLITICOusasolarcell.com

7. Country-Specific Profiles

India

• Surged from a net importer to a leading exporter of solar modules.
• Module exports climbed from ~$83M (FY22) → ~$1.97B (FY24), with $782M exported in Apr–Nov 2024. Source Saur Energypv magazine InternationalJMK Research & Analytics
• However, domestic cell manufacturing lags, and many manufacturers now push exports under “China-plus-one” strategies. Source SolarQuarterJMK Research & Analytics

Indonesia

• Import volumes grew sharply, but detailed public data remain limited. The rapid increase suggests new investments in Indonesian PV manufacturing.

Laos

• Saw virtually zero exports until 2023—then surged to nearly 2 GW in 2024 with significant dollar value. Source pv magazine InternationalSolar&StorageXtra - Light reading

8. US Policy & Market Context

In 2018, Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imported solar cells, later scaled down to 15%—aimed at bolstering U.S. production but disrupting solar deployment. Source Wikipedia+1

While manufacturing capacity surged (e.g., 190% module capacity growth in 2024), installations declined in 2024 due to high costs and logistical bottlenecks: residential down 19%, utility-scale down 2%. Source The Verge

McKinsey estimates that "high tariff" scenarios could cut U.S. solar deployment by 9% by 2035. Source pv magazine International

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has, however, incentivized domestic production with tax credits and grants. Source Financial Times

9. Economic & Environmental Impacts of Tariffs

Historical data from SEIA indicates that tariffs led to a loss of over 62,000 U.S. jobs, $19 billion in investment, and about 10.5 GW of foregone solar deployment. Source Solar Energy Industries Association

Academic modeling (Cowles/Yale) confirms significant negative welfare and deployment impacts from solar tariffs. Source Cowles Foundation

MOST Policy Initiative adds: a $1 tariff leads to a $1.35 increase in end prices—hurting consumers and installers. Source mostpolicyinitiative.org

FTI Consulting shows new tariffs could raise utility-scale project costs by ~30%, potentially reducing 2025 U.S. installations from expected 35–40 GW to 20–25 GW. Source Reuters

10. Future Outlook & Scenarios

1. High-Tariff Scenario
• Deployment drops by ~9% by 2035 (McKinsey).
• Accelerated domestic manufacturing via IRA incentives. Source pv magazine InternationalFinancial Times
2. Moderate Response Scenario
• Exporters diversify into other markets.
• U.S. installs rely more on domestic modules/cells (expected rise in cell capacity).
3. Legal & Diplomatic Counters
• India and others may file WTO or sectoral challenges.
• Bilateral negotiations or supply chain safeguards may emerge.

11. Conclusion: What to Watch Next

This AD/CVD investigation is a watershed in U.S. solar trade strategy:

• If affirmative outcomes lead to duties, trade flows will shift once again.
• India’s export boom may face abrupt recalibration—with economic ramifications.
• The broader U.S. solar industry's path depends on ITC’s preliminary decision (due Sept 2), followed by Commerce’s AD/CVD findings in October–December 2025.